Assessment for Tajiks in Afghanistan

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Risk Assessment | Analytic Summary | References

Risk Assessment

The political situation of the Tajiks changed radically in 2001, when the United States led a coalition in overthrowing the Pashtun-dominated Taliban government. Although led by a Pashtun, Hamid Karzai, the interim government set in place by 2002 was dominated by ethnic Tajiks. Tajiks are unlikely to rebel against the central state so long as they maintain representation. However, Tajiks continue to be involved in intercommunal conflict, primarily with Pashtuns, Uzbeks, and Hazaras. Until the central government is strong enough to contain warlordism, such clashes are likely to continue.

Tajiks have engaged in moderate levels of protest, a situation that is unlikely to change. However, Tajik energy seems mostly directed at conventional electoral mobilization.

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Analytic Summary

Tajiks, who speak various dialects of Dari (LANG = 1), are concentrated in the northeast of Afghanistan, with smaller numbers in the west of the country (GROUPCON = 2). Like the majority of Afghans, they are primarily Sunni Muslim (BELIEF = 0), although some, who live mainly in and around the western city of Herat are Ismaili Shi`i. They are the second largest ethnic group in Afghanistan, after the Pashtun, and have been the Pashtuns' most serious rival for power in the country. Tajiks are strongly cohesive organizationally and have a relatively strong identity. Afghanistan's Tajik community, as represented by the Jam'iat-i-Islam party and under the guidance of Burhanuddin Rabbani, gained control of the country's government in 1992. Rabbani was overthrown in 1996 by the Pashtun-dominated Taliban, which led to a protracted civil war in the country. Tajiks dominated the Northern Alliance, the opposition grouping fighting the Taliban.

In 2001, following the September 11 attacks on the United States, the U.S. led a coalition of forces to overthrow the Taliban regime, which sheltered leaders of Al-Qaeda. The coalition cooperated with the Northern Alliance, whose members dominated the interim government although it was headed by a non-aligned Pashtun, Hamid Karzai.

Tajiks are represented by a variety of organizations and political parties, including Jamiat-e Islami (Islamic Society), led by Burhanuddin Rabbani; Nazhat-e Milli (National Movement), led by Ahmad Wali Massoud; Zazman-i Inqilabi Zahmatkishanan-i Afghanistan (Revolutionary Organisation of the Toilers of Afghanistan, SAZA), led by Mahboobullah Kushani; Congra-i Milli (National Congress), led by Latif Pedram; and Hizb-e Afghanistan-e Nawin (New Afghanistan Party), led by Younus Qanooni. Jamiat-e Islami is a militant organization, but the other organizations are conventional political parties (GOJPA = 3). Jamiat-e Islami continues to be the dominant party. However, in the 2005 legislative elections, no parties were allowed and all candidates ran as individuals. Thus, Tajiks also are represented by non-aligned Tajiks as well.

Tajik grievances center on political participation. They desire greater involvement in the central government and also greater control over Tajik-majority regions of the country. They also desire greater economic opportunities.

Tajiks have not engaged in rebellion since the overthrow of the Taliban. However, they engaged in high levels of communal conflict with Pashtuns, Uzbeks and Hazaras through 2004 (INTERCON04 = 1). No intercommunal conflict involving Tajiks was reported in 2005-2006 (INTERCON05-06 = 0). There has been limited Tajik protest in recent years (PROT03-04 = 3; PROT05-06 = 0).

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References

Ahady, Anwar-ul-Haq "Conflict In Post-Soviet-Occupation Afghanistan" Journal of Contemporary Asia, 1991, 21 (4), pp. 513-28.

Ahady, Anwar-ul-Haq "Afghanistan, State Breakdown" in Jack Goldstone, Ted R. Gurr & Frank Moshiri (eds.) Revolutions of the Late Twentieth Century, Boulder: Westview, 1991. pp. 162-93.

Ahady, Anwar-ul-Haq "The Changing Interests of the Regional Powers and the Resolution of the Afghan Conflict" Asian Affairs: An American Review, 1994, 21 (2), pp. 80-93.

Amnesty International. Various reports. 2002-2003.

Ewans, Martin. 2002. Afghanistan: A Short History of Its People and Politics. New York: HarperCollins.

International Crisis Group. 2005. "Political Parties in Afghanistan." Asia Briefing No. 39.

Jawad, Nassim Afghanistan: A Nation of Minorities, Minority Rights Group, 1992.

Keesing's Contemporary Archive, Keesing's Record of World Events, 1990-1994.

Lexis/Nexis, various news wires 1990-2006.

Library of Congress. Aug. 2008. "Country Profile: Afghanistan."

Nerwell, Richard S. "Post-Soviet Afghanistan: The Position of Minorities" Asian Survey, 1989, 29 (11), pp. 1090-1108.

Nyrop, Richard F. & Donald M. Seekins (eds.) Afghanistan: A Country Study, The American University, 1986.

Roy, Olivar Islam and Resistance in Afghanistan, Cambridge: Cambridge U. Press, 1990.

Rubin, Barnett R. 2002. The Fragmentation of Afghanistan: State Formation and Collapse in the International System. 2d Edition. New Haven: Yale University Press.

U.S. Department of State. Country Reports on Human Rights Practices: Afghanistan. 1998-2006.

Vogelsang, Willem. 2002. The Afghans. Oxford: Blackwell Publishers.

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